Homicide Rate Analysis: St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2019-2024)

Homicide Rate Analysis: St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Regional and Global Comparators (2019-2024)

This analysis provides a comparative overview of homicide numbers and rates per 100,000 population for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados, Jamaica, Mexico, and the USA over a six-year period from 2019 to 2024. Data for 2024 is still emerging for some countries, and in some cases, extrapolations or the latest available figures have been used.

From the Biblical context, God commanded, "thou shalt not kill." When a nation breaks the laws of God and kills, blood is shed and curses come. I hope that this article will wake up Vincentians to the enormity of what is really happening in our nation, and repent of our sins.

How St. Vincent and the Grenadines Measures In Comparison To Five Other Countries

St. Vincent and the Grenadines has the smallest population in comparison to Grenada, Barbados, Jamaica, Mexico and the United States of America.  However, our homicide rates are alarming and cause for concern.  Here are the findings:

1. The 2019 homicide  rate was 18.1%, leading neighboring Barbados and Grenada which have slightly larger populations. 

2.  Homicide rate almost doubled in 2021 and 2021. We're still leading Grenada and Barbados, with both of these countries experiencing a reduction, notably Grenada.

3.  SVG homicide rates range from 49 to 53% between 2022  to 2024, making us equivalent with Jamaica, and a leader among the six  countries. 

4. Vincentians know offhand that the homicides were mainly due to gun violence. What measures are in place to deter the entry and use of guns in the country?

Table 1: SVG Homicides and Homicide Rates Per 100,000 population: 2019-2024

Country	Population (2024 est.)	Homicides 2019	Rate 2019	Homicides 2020	Rate 2020	Homicides 2021	Rate 2021
St. Vincent & the Grenadines	100,616	19	18.88	32	31.06	31	30.14
Grenada	117,207	15	12.93	13	11.17	5	4.28
Barbados	282,467	49	17.49	43	15.26	32	11.37
Jamaica	2,839,175	1,340	47.62	1,333	47.26	1,474	52.13
Mexico	130,861,007	34,670	27.57	34,515	27.22	33,350	26.13
USA	345,426,571	16,425	4.86	21,570	6.36	22,900	6.74

Country	Homicides 2022	Rate 2022	Homicides 2023	Rate 2023	Homicides 2024	Rate 2024	Average Rate (2019-2024)
St. Vincent & the Grenadines	52	50.96	50	49.35	54	53.67	39.01
Grenada	8	6.84	6	5.13	N/A*	N/A*	8.07
Barbados	43	15.23	N/A*	N/A*	N/A*	N/A*	14.84
Jamaica	1,508	53.34	1,393	49.3	N/A*	N/A*	49.93
Mexico	31,936	24.83	30,500	23.51	29,100	22.24	25.25
USA	22,000	6.44	20,000	5.82	18,000	5.21	5.91

See the full table 

Notes on the table

*N/A indicates specific homicide numbers or rates for the exact year were not readily available in the provided search results. Averages are based on available data.

**St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) 2024 homicide rate was directly sourced. Previous years' homicide numbers are inferred from reported rates and population estimates where exact numbers were not found.

***Mexico's 2024 homicide figure is an estimate based on reported decline trends.

****USA homicide numbers for 2023 and 2024 are estimates based on reported percentage changes.

How Homicide Rates are Calculated:

The homicide rate is calculated using the following formula:

$$\text{Homicide Rate (per 100,000)}=\left(\frac{\text{Number of Homicides}}{\text{Total Population}}\right)\times 100,000$$

Example Calculation for St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2024):

• Number of Homicides: 54
• Estimated Population: 100,616

$$\text{Homicide Rate}=\left(\frac{54}{100,616}\right)\times 100,000\approx 53.67$$

This standardization allows for a fair comparison between countries with very different population sizes. For example, a country with 100 homicides and a population of 10 million has a much lower rate (1 per 100,000) than a country with 100 homicides and a population of 100,000 (100 per 100,000).

Population Size in Relation to St. Vincent and the Grenadines Homicides:

St. Vincent and the Grenadines has a significantly smaller population (around 100,000) compared to the other countries in this analysis:

• Grenada & Barbados: Roughly similar small island states, but still 17% and 180% larger, respectively.
• Jamaica: Approximately 28 times larger.
• Mexico: Over 1,300 times larger.
• USA: Over 3,400 times larger.

This vast difference in population means that a relatively small number of homicides in SVG can result in a very high per capita rate, making the implications of each incident more pronounced. Conversely, even large numbers of homicides in populous countries like Mexico or the USA can yield lower per capita rates.

Explanation of Findings and Implications Of SVG Homicides:

The data highlights a concerning trend in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, with its homicide rate showing a significant increase and remaining high, placing it among the more violent nations on a per capita basis in this comparison.

• St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG): SVG exhibits a concerningly high and escalating homicide rate. The 2024 rate of 53.67 is particularly alarming for a small island developing state. With a small population,  each homicide has a disproportionately large impact on the per capita rate, contributing to a perception of widespread violence.

• Regional Caribbean Context:

  • Jamaica continues to have one of the highest homicide rates globally, illustrating deeply entrenched challenges with violent crime, often linked to gangs, drugs, and illicit firearms.
  • Barbados and Grenada, while experiencing fluctuations, generally maintain lower homicide rates than SVG and Jamaica. Grenada, in particular, shows a relatively low average, suggesting a more stable security environment. The variations indicate that even within small island states, security outcomes can differ significantly.

• Global Comparators:

• Mexico consistently has a high number of homicides, leading to a high rate, largely due to organized crime, drug cartels, and corruption. The slight decline in recent years is positive but the overall challenge remains immense.
• The USA, despite its large population and well-documented issues with gun violence, maintains a significantly lower national homicide rate than the Caribbean nations and Mexico on a per capita basis. This underscores the severity of the challenge faced by the smaller, more densely affected nations.
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Implications for National Security, Tourism, and Other Areas of Economic Development:

1. National Security:

• Internal Stability and Governance: For SVG, a persistently high homicide rate, particularly if tied to organized criminal elements, can erode public trust in governance and law enforcement. It indicates a challenge to the state's monopoly on legitimate force and its ability to maintain order. This can lead to a sense of insecurity among citizens and potentially encourage vigilantism or migration.
• Drug and Arms Trafficking: The high rates in the Caribbean are often directly linked to international drug trafficking routes and the proliferation of illegal firearms. This makes border security a paramount national security concern for island nations like SVG, as they are vulnerable transit points. Failure to curb these flows fuels local violence.
• Law Enforcement Capacity: The ability of police forces in small states to effectively investigate, apprehend, and prosecute offenders is crucial. Limited resources, training, and potential corruption can hinder efforts, creating a cycle of impunity that encourages further criminal activity.

2. Tourism:

• Reputation and Perception: Tourism is highly sensitive to perceptions of safety. A high homicide rate, especially when highlighted in international news, can severely damage a country's image as a peaceful and desirable vacation destination. Even if violence doesn't directly target tourists, the general perception of instability can lead to travel advisories or a decline in bookings.
• Economic Impact: A reduction in tourist arrivals directly impacts foreign exchange earnings, employment in the hospitality sector, and ancillary businesses (restaurants, transportation, local vendors). For economies heavily reliant on tourism, like many Caribbean islands, this can have cascading negative effects, leading to job losses and reduced government revenue.
• Niche Tourism Vulnerability: While some tourists may remain unaffected (e.g., those staying in all-inclusive resorts), niche markets like yachting, eco-tourism, or cultural tourism, which involve more interaction with local communities, might be more sensitive to security concerns.
• Insurance and Travel Costs: Higher crime rates can lead to increased travel insurance premiums for visitors and higher operational costs for tourism businesses due to enhanced security needs.

Figure 1: SVG Homicides 2019 - 2024

Click over the image for an enlarged view

3. Other Areas of Economic Development:

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): High levels of violent crime create an unfavorable investment climate. Foreign investors seek stability, security, and predictability. Perceived insecurity can deter FDI, limit job creation, and restrict economic diversification beyond traditional sectors.
• Local Business Environment: Domestic businesses also suffer from increased insecurity. Higher security costs, reduced consumer spending (due to fear), and the disruption of daily life can stifle entrepreneurship and growth.
• Human Capital: A high crime rate can lead to "brain drain," as skilled professionals and young people seek safer environments and better opportunities abroad. This loss of human capital directly impacts a country's long-term development prospects, affecting sectors like healthcare, education, and innovation.
• Social and Development Spending: Resources that could be allocated to education, health, infrastructure, or social programs may instead be diverted to security and correctional services, creating a vicious cycle where underdevelopment fuels crime, and crime drains development funds.
• Rule of Law and Institutional Strength: The sustained challenge of high crime rates can weaken the rule of law, overburden judicial systems, and undermine public confidence in state institutions, which are fundamental for sustainable economic development.

In summary, for a small island nation like St. Vincent and the Grenadines, every homicide has a magnified impact on its per capita rate and national narrative. 

The current trends pose significant challenges to national security, threaten the vital tourism industry, and impede broader efforts towards economic development by creating an environment of instability and discouraging investment and human capital retention.

Addressing these issues requires a multi-faceted approach involving strong law enforcement, community engagement, youth programs, and regional cooperation to combat transnational crime.

Reading

Organized Crime Index

Reported Crimes By Type For SVG

St. Vincent and the Grenadines Murder/Homicide Rate 1990-2025